When Hurricane Ian made landfall in September 2022, Florida residents already were weary from three years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Category 4 winds and storm surge battered the Fort Myers area, forcing difficult decisions for both residents and responders.
A new study by researchers from USF’s College of Public Health (COPH) relives this nightmare scenario, but in doing so offers valuable data about responses to two merging disasters − and how that information could save lives in the future.
"Influence of COVID-19 conditions on resident evacuation behavior during Hurricane Ian" appeared in Weather, Climate and Society, a journal of the American Meteorological Society. The paper examines how the evolving COVID-19 pandemic affected perceptions of hurricane risks and whether to stay home or go to a shelter.
“The pandemic has likely played a role in influencing evacuation decisions in recent years,’’ the authors note. “This study suggests a possible shift in this dynamic, with factors like increased access to vaccines and public health measures contributing to a decrease in the prominence of COVID-19 concerns during evacuations.’’
The COPH authors include Elizabeth Dunn, instructor II and DrPH student, and Dr. Rashida Jones, PhD candidate; Leilani Paxton and Jennifer Collins of the USF School of Geosciences; Jason Young of Florida State University; and Anna Cecil of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. The team has been collecting data for five years to better understand how local communities respond to evacuation orders, to improve messaging, and to support vulnerable populations in how they cope with a major disaster.
Elizabeth Dunn, instructor II and DrPH student (Photo courtesy of Dunn)
“Our findings demonstrate a clear evolution in public thinking over the course of the pandemic,’’ Dunn said. “Hurricanes Laura and Sally made landfall in the Gulf Coast region during the 2020 hurricane season and approximately 80% of individuals who chose to remain at home indicated that COVID-19 influenced their decision.”
But by the time Hurricane Ian struck in 2022, a major shift in risk perception had occurred, with about 4% of those who sheltered in place citing COVID-19 as their primary concern.
“Prior to the availability of vaccines, COVID-19 was often viewed as the greater evil,’’ Dunn said. “However, within a few years, perceptions shifted, and the immediate threat of the hurricane came to outweigh lingering concerns about the virus.’’
Anna Cecil is one of the student authors involved in the summer NSF Research Experience for Undergraduates program. (Photo courtesy of Dunn)
For many people in harm’s way, their first thought as a storm approached might have been, “Do I stay and risk it, or leave and expose myself of a potentially deadly disease?’’ Those perceptions, Paxton said, have altered significantly.
“The risk of exposure in a crowded public shelter is a central concern, but the issue is broader,’’ she said. “It’s about a fundamental shift in risk assessment for any evacuation that brings you into close contact with others, whether at a shelter, hotel or a friend’s house.’’
Additionally, the study found that 50% of the respondents said having a pet played a significant role in their decision to stay home or evacuate.
(Photo courtesy of Dunn)
Accessible, accurate information also played a role. More than 70% strongly agreed they were provided with timely information to make a good evacuation decision, relying on sources of information such as local media, county/city emergency preparedness websites and electronic media. The least relied on sources of information were social and print media.
The study highlights the importance of providing clear, consistent and timely information during a public health crisis, the authors said.
For the average person, this study highlights the real-world challenges and complexities families face when deciding whether or not to evacuate during a hurricane. It shows that factors like communication gaps, perceptions of health risks and trust in information sources can directly influence personal safety.
Elizabeth Dunn
The team hopes its research serves as a direct feedback loop to emergency management officials so they can launch aggressive awareness campaigns.
In the end, it boils down to empowerment through preparation and two key points:
- Know your real risk. People focus too much on a hurricane's category and not enough on the specific threats to their home, like storm surge. Find out your evacuation and flood zone and take official orders seriously.
- Have a complete plan. A vague idea to leave isn't enough. The team showed that half the pet owners who stayed did so because of their pets, so a plan must include them. Research pet friendly options before the storm nears.
“Florida is regularly in the hurricane path and evacuation decisions have very real implications, such as loss of life, property damage and the emotional and financial toll of preparing or evacuating,’’ Jones said. “Our study helps Floridians understand why some people don’t evacuate even when ordered to do so, or why they delay, or avoid shelters. Sharing these insights can help residents make better-informed choices when faced with an evacuation order.’’