Radicalization
Overview
CONTAGION EFFECT: RADICALIZATION, UNREST, AND COMPETITION IN THE COVID-19 ERA
September 2020
The implications of the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on U.S. objectives in the USCENTCOM region is uncertain. The dawn of the 21st century was already marked by notable changes in the international system prior to the COVID pandemic including challenges to the modern nation-state international system, emboldening of individuals and groups supported by advances in information and communication technology (ICT), and intensification of great power competition for influence.
These dynamics, especially in post-conflict and fragile areas, have provided a fertile field for violent extremist organizations (VEOs) to take advantage of vulnerable, aggrieved, and traumatized populations to fuel radicalization, recruitment, and unrest. The addition of an unprecedented number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) and refugees in the region can exacerbate the many social and ethnic cleavages in the region that underpin regional instability. Layered on top of these concerns are sophisticated efforts by regional and global powers to yield economic, security, and cultural levers of power to influence and shape population groups across the grievance CENTCOM area of responsibility.
As it is still early in the effort to understand how the ongoing response to the COVID-19 pandemic will impact U.S. interests and capabilities in the region, this second conference in the Great Power Competition Conference Series will consider how the COVID-19 Pandemic will impact U.S. military readiness, reach, and effectiveness. This GPC Conference will expand current considerations of popular radicalization and information to explore the threats and opportunities posed by the U.S. response to the pandemic across key challenges in the Central Region such as the Great Power Competition, popular unrest & violent extremism, information & influence operations, and new capabilities in recognizing and preparing for other such black swan events.
Radicalization includes (a) the attraction of individuals to a radical ideology and the reasons why people loin VEOs, (b) the steps to preventing and countering the radicalization cycle; (c) the difference between disengagement and deradicalization; (d) re-integration and reconciliation, and (e) ideas, programs, and strategies aimed at deterring and understanding radicalization (counter violent extremism). Topics will also include the historical context of radicalization to gain a better understanding of its origins and evolution.
Population Dynamics references the shifting power from violent extremism support groups (i.e., ISIS) to population groups who may be aided by globalization, information technology, ideologies, etc. and who are rejecting sectarianism and calling for better governance. Population dynamics explores the tectonic shifts that have emerged in the region as well as resulting empowerment of population groups, expectations for governance, and future impacts of the region and the U.S.
Great Power Competition for influence engages the Great Powers’ (U.S., Russia, China, and the Regional Powers such as Iran) competing influence among populations and states such as those in the Greater Central and South Asia Regions.
CONTAGION EFFECT: RADICALIZATION, UNREST, AND COMPETITION IN THE COVID-19 ERA
Please see the Complete Agenda and Speakers' Profiles on the Great Power Competition Website Home Page.
The GPC First Day Conference Keynote Speaker is Lieutenant General (R) Michael Nagata, Former Director of Strategic Operational Planning for the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center, who will address the impact of COVID-19 on “The Rise of Malign Actors in the Globalized, Digital Age."
The GPC second day Keynote Speaker is Maj. Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich, Director of Operations, U.S. Central Command, who will address "Defining the U.S. Role in the Great Power Competition."
The GPC Conference provides a comprehensive panel presentation that includes the following:
COMPETITION FOR INFLUENCE IN THE MIDDLE EAST
Perception matters. This panel will discuss how the U.S., Chinese, and Russian responses (actual and advertised) to COVID-19 have depleted or augmented the U.S. standing in the Central Region. Also to be examined are the opportunities and risks the ongoing response to the crisis poses for USG objectives in the region. Finally, as Iran is often considered a malign actor and disruptor, this panel will consider how the pandemic will affect Iranian leadership, decision calculus, and future pathways in the post-COVID period.
POPULATION DYNAMICS: UNREST & VIOLENT EXTREMISM PANEL DISCUSSION
This panel will address the rising tide of populism in the Middle East—characterized by popular protests calling for improved governance while rejecting sectarianism. It will question if this is a durable trend that will result in more responsive and representative governments and whether this trend could be overcome by the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic where autocratic governments take advantage of the chaos to consolidate power.
While some individuals and populations have turned to political protest to address grievances, violent extremism remains a destabilizing factor. The Central Region suffers from numerous drivers of instability, rooted in the potential for economic and political collapse, massive populations of internally displaced persons and refugees, and traumatized and aggrieved populations vulnerable to radical ideologies. This panel will explore the drivers and buffers of popular protest, violent extremism, and other expressions of grievance in the Region.
COMPETITION FOR INFLUENCE: INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
This panel will define and discuss Great Power Competition, relating to national security objectives, information dynamics, strategic decision-making, and operations in the Information Environment.
THE COVID-19 GRAY RHINO: PREDICTABILITY, IMPACT, AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MILITARY
This panel will explore the nature of the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on global populations and their regimes, ramifications for global power competition, practical detection, and implications for the military.