National Security Human Dynamics Network

Case Study: Bilateral Influence Capacity Index (BICI)

Purpose

• Quantify the capacity of one nation to influence another using a multidimensional, relational approach (beyond resource-only “power” measures).

What BICI measures (conceptually)

• “Bandwidth” = size/volume of relationship ties across domains
• “Dependence” = degree to which one relies on the other (asymmetric leverage)

Why it matters to planners

• Supports scenario modeling and data-driven operational planning
• Helps identify leverage points, vulnerabilities, and shifting influence patterns

How USF validates and improves it

• Expert elicitation + historical case validation + method upgrades to expand fidelity and incorporate additional indicators