By Tina Meketa, University Communications and Marketing
As hurricane season approaches, researchers at the University of South Florida are turning to the public to help government agencies improve emergency communication and evacuation strategies. Led by geosciences Professor Jennifer Collins, the ongoing study builds on years of research and community engagement to better understand how people make decisions before a storm hits.
Jennifer Collins, USF professor of geosciences
Collins and her team, which includes USF students, recently launched a survey aimed at residents affected by hurricanes Helene and Milton, gathering insight into what influenced their decisions to evacuate or shelter in place. The effort includes partnerships with universities such as the University of Alabama and Auburn University, reflecting the storm systems' wide-reaching impacts across the Southeast.
“We’re looking at how people received information and how they used it to decide whether to stay or go,” Collins said. “That includes understanding how residents interpret the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and the hurricane forecast cone – tools that can unfortunately be misleading if not understood correctly.”
The research team has found in the past that many residents underestimate the dangers of lower-category storms, focusing solely on wind speeds rather than other deadly threats like flooding.
“People hear ‘Category 1’ and assume it’s no big deal, but we’ve seen significant destruction and loss of life from lower-category storms. We’re also asking how people interpret the forecast cone – many assume that being outside the cone means they’re safe, which isn’t always the case.”
USF Professor Jennifer Collins
Flooded apartment complex [Photo courtesy of Pinellas County]
Debris from hurricanes Helene and Milton [Photo courtesy of Pinellas County]
Damage following Hurricane Helene [Photo courtesy of Pinellas County]
Survey results will be disseminated to various stakeholders, including emergency managers and non-profit organizations, helping inform them on how to effectively present public messaging ahead of an impending hurricane. The survey is receiving strong support, including from Pinellas County, where damage estimates from the 2024 hurricane season have reached $2.4 billion. Its communications team has implemented results from Collins’ previous study to help shape their storm communications plan “to empower residents with timely, accurate and relevant safety information.”
Dave Connor, interim director of Pinellas County Communications
“We adopted a new approach targeting the key concerns identified in the study about pets, traffic and uncertainty. We also noted the frequency of respondents identifying specific local weather influencers and built collaborative relationships with those influencers to better connect with our residents,” said Dave Connor, interim director of Pinellas County Communications. “Because the attitudes of communities change after they experience extreme weather events, we’re particularly interested in the results of the new study to continue to empower residents with the information they need to keep themselves and their families safe in future storms.”
Collins has shifted her approach to data collection throughout the years. She and her students used to gather it at rest areas in storm-prone areas from drivers taking a break during their evacuation. They shifted to online surveys in 2021 with one focused on how the pandemic influenced their decision whether to evacuate to a public shelter.
USF students collect surveys at the Hurricane Expo in Oldsmar
She says going digital has broadened their reach, gaining hundreds of participants each week, compared to a few dozen. USF students remain a central part of the research process. They help design, pilot and distribute the surveys, often representing the research team at hurricane expos, such as one held in Oldsmar.
"I enjoy being on the research team because it gives me a different outlook on people's perspectives on risk,” said USF student Alexandra Witt, who’s majoring in environmental science and policy. “It allows me to expand my perspective, especially when many classes focus on the nature-based environment.”
Former USF geosciences graduate student Michelle Saunders surveys individuals evacuating during Hurricane Irma in 2017
The project is also deeply personal for Collins, who has herself experienced hurricanes as a resident and a researcher. Ahead of Hurricane Irma in 2017, her family evacuated the area due to concerns of having a small child at the time, despite her neighborhood not being under a mandatory evacuation order. That personal experience has helped shape how she frames questions in the survey.
“We used to ask simple questions like, ‘Do you own pets?’ but that doesn’t tell the whole story,” she explained. “Now I realize that pet size, behavior and even home ownership status can play major roles in evacuation decisions.”
The survey will close June 1 – the start of hurricane season – after which the research team will begin analyzing the data. Preliminary findings will be shared with agencies that inform the public about hurricanes – helping to shape more effective communication strategies throughout the season, which concludes Nov. 30. The team also plans to publish their results in an academic journal, contributing to the broader understanding of disaster preparedness.